When Rains Shift, Rural Farmers Must Stay Ahead

In a statement issued by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in January of this year, they forecasted that from April to June 2025, numerous nations within the area will face substantial rainfall, with certain regions experiencing precipitation levels higher than average.

This forecast followed a subpar rainfall period from October to December 2024, which typically marks the primary wet and sowing season for most nations in the area.

These circumstances have raised questions about the capacity of numerous rural farmers to bounce back, especially following the harsh drought triggered by the El Niño event during the 2023–24 period. This drought led the area to face one of its most significant food scarcity emergencies.

Even though some precipitation occurred from January through February 2025, the arid and mild weather from October to December had already inflicted considerable harm on agricultural yields in various areas within the region. Substantial rain started falling in March and became more intense in April. This development aligned with forecasts predicting a higher likelihood of above-average precipitation throughout South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, the Mozambican Channel, and Madagascar.

In general, weather and climate specialists have pointed out that there is evident proof of a change in the rainy season within southern Africa, showing a tendency toward delayed onset and reduced length in certain regions. Although this alteration does not apply uniformly throughout the area—with some locations possibly facing extended rain periods while others endure shortened ones—the consequences for farming practices, water resource management, and the occurrence rate of severe climatic incidents are significant.

Climate change is gradually altering the location of large-scale climate systems and their moisture corridors, contributing to these shifts in rainfall seasonality. These changes are already impacting agriculture and water resources and demand new strategies for managing rain-fed agriculture and water use.

Given that most of the population in southern Africa relies on rain-fed agriculture, concerns about these seasonal shifts — and how they are managed — are rising.

First, while the current rains are beneficial for refilling water reservoirs across the region, they are also causing damage to crops, particularly those that survived the earlier dry conditions and had reached the harvesting stage. The period between March and May was traditionally the harvesting season, but it is now increasingly turning into a wet period, complicating agricultural cycles.

Second, many rural farmers, who planted during the traditional October–December window, have suffered crop failures due to the dry conditions. They now face additional challenges, even with the late rains, and may require substantial support. Given that this is the second consecutive poor planting season, recovery is likely to be slower and more difficult than usual.

Thirdly, despite notable advancements in climate and weather forecasting services, many rural farmers who require such data the most still struggle to obtain it efficiently. This season’s substantial damages largely stem from their inability to access up-to-date and precise forecasts regarding precipitation predictions and cultivation guidance. It is essential to launch public education initiatives focused on informing about changing rain patterns—specifically when these rains will start and how long they might last—to ensure better outcomes in agriculture moving forward.

Fourth, there is an immediate necessity to promote winter farming among rural farmers, leveraging the later rains to ensure some yield. Failure to implement this change might result in yet another disappointing harvest season—this time because of miscommunication, improper scheduling, and inadequate planning rather than insufficient rain.

Ultimately, to assist rural farmers dealing with an unpredictable monsoon cycle, enhancing their ability to withstand such changes needs to be a priority. This involves boosting access to seeds resistant to dry conditions, effective watering technologies, insurance against climatic risks, and advisory support encouraging the use of farming methods adapted to changing climates. Additionally, policies ought to emphasize setting up alert mechanisms for severe weather occurrences, preparing for disasters ahead of time, and safeguarding biological diversity.

It has become crucial to highlight for rural farmers that maintaining the status quo is no longer an option. Climate change and its associated risks have arrived permanently—moreover, these effects are escalating rapidly. The sole feasible approach moving forward involves adapting through implementing novel strategies, fortifying resistance, and integrating advanced methods as key measures to diminish susceptibility.

The era of reactive approaches is over. It is now crucial to take proactive actions with resolve and vision. Governments, alongside their collaborators and local leaders, should collaborate closely to guarantee that small-scale farmers in rural areas—who form the foundation of food stability in southern Africa—receive the necessary resources, information, and assistance to endure and flourish amid shifting climatic conditions.

Investments should focus on climate-resistant farming practices, increasing accessibility to current weather updates, and establishing safeguards for protecting livelihoods from potential future disruptions. The stability of the area’s nutritional safety, economic conditions, and cultural lifestyles hinges on present-day choices. It is crucial to opt for resilience. It is essential to take action. Now is the moment to act—immediately.